Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
