This Remarkable Scoring Streak Fuels Aston Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid
A mere two months prior when the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason for the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After the England international swept in his second to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six games, now sit just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
This is a particularly tough query to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club who have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their star man to bail them out with two crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers stood in front of the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.